The prediction platform Polymarket has forecasted a 77% chance of a US Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in 2025. However, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, believes that this forecast is "underpriced" and the actual odds are even higher.
Sigel’s Optimism
In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel expressed his optimism regarding the possibility of a Solana ETF listing in the US. He stated that the industrywide expectations for more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win are likely to come true.
Industry Expectations
The pro-crypto stance of President-elect Trump has created a favorable environment for the approval of new crypto ETFs in the US. His promise to make America "the world’s crypto capital" has sent a positive signal to the industry, with many analysts expecting an increase in regulatory approvals for crypto-related products.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket is one of the leading platforms for predicting market trends and outcomes. Its prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. As of January 2, the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 had increased to approximately 84%, according to Polymarket’s website.
Challenges Ahead
While there is optimism surrounding the potential approval of new crypto ETFs in the US, there are still challenges that need to be overcome. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly challenged the plans of VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares to list spot Solana ETFs, citing concerns that SOL may not qualify as a commodity.
Grantor Trust Structure
The success of proposed Solana ETFs may hinge on their ability to conform to an atypical "grantor trust" structure. This structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity, such as gold or oil. However, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs have successfully used this structure in the US.
Trump’s Impact on Crypto
The presidential win of Donald Trump has sent a positive signal to the crypto industry, with many analysts expecting an increase in regulatory approvals for crypto-related products. Industry analysts see Trump’s victory as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
Bullish Betters
Polymarket is one of the leading platforms for predicting market trends and outcomes, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. The prediction platform Polymarket has forecasted a 77% chance of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025, but Sigel believes this forecast is "underpriced" and the actual odds are even higher.
Conclusion
The possibility of a Solana ETF listing in the US is looking increasingly likely. With industrywide expectations for more crypto ETF listings and Trump’s pro-crypto stance, the regulatory environment is favorable for approval. However, challenges still need to be overcome, such as conforming to an atypical grantor trust structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025?
- According to Polymarket’s forecast, the odds are around 77%. However, Sigel believes this forecast is "underpriced" and the actual odds are even higher.
- Why are there challenges ahead for proposed Solana ETFs?
- The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly challenged the plans of VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares to list spot Solana ETFs, citing concerns that SOL may not qualify as a commodity.
Related Articles
- Betting Markets Predict Bullish 2025 for Crypto: The prediction platform Polymarket has forecasted a bullish outlook for cryptocurrency markets in 2025.
- Favorable Listing Prospects: Industrywide expectations are favorable for the approval of new crypto ETFs in the US after President-elect Trump’s November election win.
